Let's Talk Turkey

It should not come as a surprise to learn that Americans frequent the turkey train to gravy town every Thanksgiving. In 2021, 5.1 billion pounds of turkey were consumed in the U.S. and the average American ate 15.3 pounds of turkey. In fact, the National Turkey Federation reports that roughly 88 percent of Americans eat Thanksgiving turkey. This means that roughly 293.3 million people will eat turkey on Thanksgiving in 2023.

During a time of global turmoil where societial emotions can run high, as representatives and citizens of this wonderful country, there should be nothing taken for granted. This nation is in a position where we can take an extended weekend to celebrate, feast, and give thanks. Whether the focus is family, culture, food, charitable contributions or religion, Thanksgiving provides the innate perspective of all angles from all walks of life. However, when it comes down to the perspective of whether to have turkey at Thanksgiving, the U.S. seem to stay umamious: would you like white or dark meat?

From a global viewpoint, despite food inflation and supply chain problems, food is more affordable in the U.S. than in other countries. In fact, the average U.S. consumer spends only 6.7 percent of their disposable income on food, which is the lowest of 104 countries measured by the USDA in 2022 and 20 percent lower than the next nearest country, which is Singapore at 8.4 percent. Five countries have food expenditures that exceed 50 percent of disposable income, with the highest being Nigeria at 59 percent. The U.S. is lower than many peer nations as well, with Canadians and Australians all paying ten percent of their disposable income on food.

The U.S. is the world's largest turkey producer and largest exporter of turkey products. Total turkey production in 2020 was 224 million, equal to 7.3 billion pounds. Turkey consumption nearly doubled since 1970, with ground turkey seeing a major increase in popularity as a nutrient rich, lower-fat substitute for ground beef. Minn. produces 40 million turkeys per year, followed by N.c. (31 million), Ark. (30 million), Ind. (20 million) and Mo. (16.5 million). Ill. produces about five million turkeys annually.

The official Ill. goverment website reports that hunters in Ill. harvested a preliminary statewide total of 262 wild turkeys during the 2023 fall firearm turkey season, which occurred on the dates of Oct. 21-29. The 2023 total compares with the statewide turkey harvest of 267 in 2022. Fall turkey firearm was opn in 56 of Illinois' 102 counties.

The top counties for harvest this year were: Jo Daviess, 23; Marion, 14; Williamson, 14; Franklin, 13; and Pope, 12.

Preliminary data show 55 percent of the harvest were female birds and 48 percent were male. Macoupin County reported a total of three wild turkeys harvested. Illinois' stunning record harvest for wild turkeys was set in 2005 when 1,218 birds were harvested.

As Americans prepare for Thanksgiving, they'll see some relief in food prices for their Thanksgiving dinner. In the American Farm Bureau Federation's 38th Annual Thanksgiving dinner survey, they found that this year's classic Thanksgiving feast for ten will be $61.17, or approximately $6.12 per guest. This represents a 4.5 percent decline from historically high prices last year, driven by the decline in the price of the dinner centerpiece, the turkey. This year's drop in turkey prices is attributable to a decrease in avian influenza cases and the recovery in the turkey flock.

Over the past two decades, the turkey has accounted for an average of 43 percent of the price of the Thanksgiving dinner according to the AFBF survey, with a slight increase over time. In 2023, a 16-pound frozen whole turkey accounts for 45 percent of the classic Thanksgiving cornacopia basket of food at $27.35, a 5.6 percent decrease from 2022. Given its prominence, the turkey is the true driver of Thanksgiving dinner prices.

Finder.com is a service that provides guides and information on ranges of products and services, used weekly retial price data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)'s Agricultural Marketing Service to project the weekly price of a whole frozen turkey during Thanksgiving, gathering data back to 2010. It's estimated that in 2023, Americans will spend an estimated $1.28 billion on festive fowls, which is a slight increase of the roughly $16 million from the $1.27 billion paid for Thanksgiving turkeys in 2022.

Five of the top poultry production states in the U.S. are in the Midwest, led by Minn., however, in Ill., the turkey industry has a smaller, but still very important footprint. Poultry contributes nearly $600 bilion annually to the U.S. economy, which represents three percent of the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

In Ill., there is a concentration of independent growers in the Peoria and Morton areas, along with a couple of USDA-inspected processing plants. The lack of processing plants is a major impediment in expanding the poultry industry in Ill. The cost of building a plant is very expensive, and finding enough employees willing to work is another ssue. Most Ill. turkey producers are contract growers for large, integrated farms in Iowa and Ind.

When considering further processed food items, it is essential to remember the small role that direct agricultural market conditions have on final retail prices. Additional rounds of value added through further processing, the use of additional ingredients and promotional efforts by retialers lower the impact of farm economics on what consumers pay at the register.

Part of the reason food prices in the U.S. remain comparatively low is the presence of effective risk management and safety net programs that help stabilize agriculture markets and revenues farmers receive in an inherently uncertain and volatile industry.

Many of these programs are defined and authorized by the farm bill, which expired on Sept. 30, 2023. The farm bill provides an important consistent opportunity for those that make policies to address agricultural and food issues comprehensively. It has grown over the decades to serve both food and agriculture, but its roots are in farm commodity program support. The farm bill has expanded and broadened to include nutrition assistance, conservation, research, a broader swath of crops and bioenergy programs. Because of this, the farm bill brings together a diverse coalition to advocate for a bureaucracy as stand-alone measures.

On the farm side, those utilizing farm bill programs value risk management tools that offer certainty and predictability. Tools like crop insurance products, marketing loans and commodity programs help producers manage through tough times. Voluntary, market based incentives in conservation programs help provide producers with the tools and assistance needed to implement soil and water improvements. Rural communities have access to tools like broadband grants and new business loans authorized by the farm bill to help enhance economic development and attract growth.

On the nutrition assistance side, many families are able to put dinner on the table thanks to farm bill programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). In 2022, there was an average of 41.2 million Americans receiving SNAP benefits at any given time, a full 12.6 percent of the U.S. population.

Just as agriculture changes and adapts to meet the needs of the time, the farm bill must do the same to serve the needs of its constituents. Every five years or so, Congress prioritizes the passage of a new farm bill to meet the challenges of an ever-changing world and ensure that critical programs continue to work for farmers and ranchers, families on a budget, and rural communities working to stay competitive.

This year, the same factors that have led to inflated prices for food and for all the things that farmers have to buy to produce that food have raised new challenges for the farm bill. Unfortunately, several programs do not automatically adust for inflation and that is including the spending on agricultural research and Title I commodity programs. As a result, they currently have less impact than intended when the farm bill was last passed in 2018.

According to AFBF's national Thanksgiving survey, 2023 will have the second most expensive Thanksgiving meal in the survey's 38-year history. Although, Thanksgiving meal items have begun to come down, food price inflation remains a real issue and serves as a constraint on the budget of all U.S. consumers. Despite challenges with inflation and the rising cost of food, farmers and ranchers are continously working hard each day to provide America with a safe and affordable food supply. Food security plays a significant role in national security, and as you gather around the table with friends and family, let's also give thanks to the hard work of farmers, ranchers and truck drivers for providing our food and the national security and well-being that go with it.